There was only a
limited campaign in the ten EU-member countries of the region, and even this
was dominated by internal issues. Other elections were held as well: in
Lithuania Grybauskaite scored a sweeping victory at the presidential elections,
while in Croatia the opposition celebrated a slight victory at the local
elections. In Yerevan
there was no surprise at the city elections. In the Czech
Republic the new government was
formed, while in Estonia
the incumbent one collapsed. The Prime Minister of the Bosniak-Croat Federation
also resigned. In Moldova
the Parliament, elected in April, had to be dissolved because of the
unsuccessful presidential election. In Slovenia and Slovakia corruption cases
affected the popularity of the junior governing parties. In Bulgaria the
'gauntlet' of the Blue Coalition continued. Minsk
split with Moscow.
During the month
the new Moldovan parliament held its first sitting, but its term lasted
only for a month. The opposition sabotaged the presidential election, so the
legislature had to be dissolved and new elections will be called for. The
governing communists nominated the Prime Minister, Zinaida Greceanii for
president, while the incumbent Vladimir Voronin received the position of
parliamentary speaker, a position that will allow him to exert his influence
later on. The Communist Party which was hoping to get the one vote necessary to
elect the new president from the opposition, offered negotiations to the three
opposition parties, but those declined the offer. The early elections will be
held in August or in September if Voronin issues the necessary order. The Czech
parliament also decided - officially - to hold early elections, after the
interim government of Jan Fischer was formed. The Social Democratic Party
supported the cabinet only on the condition that the house of deputies
cancelled the majority of the health care fees. During the EP-campaign, flawed
by egg-throwings, the Upper House also ratified the Lisbon Treaty, now the next
obstacle is the President, Václav Klaus. The congress of the Christian
Democratic Union was also held, where the former finance minister, Miroslav
Kalousek left the party, and Cyril Svoboda, the former minister of regional
development became party chairman. European issues were brought up in Poland as well (quite unlike most
countries in Eastern Europe). The opposition
Law and Justice is becoming stronger despite the scandal around its party
lists. The two main parties were debating mainly the distribution of European
positions. The constitutional court declared a tie in the debate about the
foreign policy powers of the President and the Prime Minister, but the
President has recently been more and more involved in economic matters as well.
The President criticized the anti-crisis steps of the government, based mainly
on flexible work-time, and it is almost sure that Lech Kaczynski will want to
have a say in the debate about the newest anti-crisis package, due in July or
August. The anti-crisis package was drafted in Macedonia as well, but,
according to the finance minister, the country still does not need an
IMF-credit. Foreign policy issues dominated the month: the ethnic Albanian
Democratic Union for Integration gave a half year ultimatum to the Prime
Minister to resolve the name-dispute with Greece. What is more, the coalition
was also shaken by a cancelled visit of Kosovo’s President Fatmir Sejdiu
because Sejdiu would not have been greeted with stateliness. As a result, the
Macedonian Albanians also started protests. The former president, Branko
Crvenkovski was re-elected as the leader of the opposition Social Democrats. Of
course, the cancellation of Sejdiu’s visit was embarrassing for Kosovo
as well, but the country scored considerable foreign policy victories as well:
in May it became a member of IMF, and presumably, in June, the World Bank will
also admit it. During the month, the governing coalition was finally able to
elect the members of the constitutional court and the ombudsman (Sami
Kurteshi). No date was found however for the autumn local elections (presumably
they will be held in November). Meanwhile, riots broke out in Mitrovica again,
this time because of the renovation policies of the town. Another important
event was the visit of the American vice president Joe Biden, which was meant
to strengthen the state in Kosovo and in Bosnia and Herzegovina as
well. The latter does need this: the Prime Minister of the Federation, Nedzad
Brankovic resigned, surrounded by alleged corruption cases, and after his
Party, the Democratic Action, re-elected his rival, Sulejman Tihic as party
chairman. What is more, Brankovic had done this before the parliament could
have adopted the new anti-crisis measures, necessary to acquire an extended
credit of 1,2 billion dollars. Milorad Dodik, the Prime Minister of the other
entity, Republika Srpska, continues his war against High Representative
Valentin Inzko. Dodik is also surrounded by accusations of corruption, while
Inzko - after having strengthened his international position - gave an
ultimatum: should the RS not cancel the parliament’s resolution questioning the
transfer of powers to the national level, he will use his unlimited powers of
hiring and firing. The government collapsed not only in the Federation, the
other crisis happened in Estonia. With the senior governing Reform Party
not being able to agree with the Social Democrats on the labor and tax sides of
the anti-crisis package, the Prime Minister Andrus Ansip sacked the three
Social Democrat ministers. For a while, negotiations were conducted with the
agrarian National Union (RL), but a junior governing party, the Union of the
Homeland and Res Publica could not agree with RL on social budget cuts, so a
minority government was formed, which will be supported by the Greens, and - to
some extent - the RL also. Social cuts marked debates in Latvia as well.
A 20% cut in teachers’ salaries, cutting back on premiums for working mothers,
and the brutal cuts in costs affecting all ministries were still not able to
get the budget deficit under 7%, its being just above 9% for the time being, so
the country will need another round of cuts. This was one of the reasons why
the finance minister Einars Repse received full powers in withholding budget
sources. Together with the EP-campaign ran the campaign of the local elections,
the crescendo of the left-wing is expected here as well. The situation is not
so obvious in Croatia,
where local elections were held on the 17th May. The senior
governing Democratic Union won in the majority of the counties, but it could
not hold on to its positions in cities. Zagreb
remains under Social Democratic control, although a considerable inner-party
debate can be expected on the coalition in the capital. Unions were protesting
before the elections, but the government was able to come to an agreement with
them, unlike in the case of students protesting for free education. The
Slovenian border dispute was not solved either, although Croatia
accepted the proposals of enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn. Slovenia,
on the other hand, requested amendments, so it was not adopted. Meanwhile, the
shadowy loans of Nova Ljubljanska Banka and their threads leading to the junior
governing Liberal Democrats and Zares caused a public uproar. This caused the
chairman of the bank, Darko Veselinovic to resign. The month of May saw the
election of Radovan Zerjav as the new chairman of the opposition People’s
Party, while the opposition Democratic Party and the junior governing Pensioner’s
Democratic Party re-elected their leaders. Corruption cases dominated in Slovakia
as well. The junior governing radical right-wing National Party saw two of its
ministers leave the government in only two weeks, which seriously damaged the
party’s image. In May, the environment minister, Jan Chrbet had to leave
because of a disputed business of selling quotas. While the justice minister
Stefan Harabin came to attention because of his candidacy for the Supreme
Court, protests occurred against the dissolution of the anti-corruption Special
Court. The senior governing Smer offered a compromise in this case. Another
important issue besides the growing deficit of the social security and the
state pension fund and the planned widening of the tax base was the statement
of Viktor Orbán, the head of the leading opposition party in Hungary about the
Hungarians in the Carpathian Basin. The Slovak parliament disapproved of the
words of Orbán.
The Lithuanian
government may soon be reshuffled as well. Dalia Grybauskaite, landslide winner
of the presidential election on the 17th May signaled that she is
dissatisfied with several ministers, and the constitution also prescribes the
nomination of a new government after presidential elections. The
president-elect also called for tax changes for small- and medium-sized
enterprises, and she will initiate the dissolution of the joint-stock company
Leo LT. The parliament, meanwhile, adopted the higher education reform, which
reorganizes the financing of universities and students. The new Montenegrin
government is about to be formed as well. The Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic
was again nominated for the position (unsurprisingly) by the President Filip
Vujanovic, however the question of Djukanovic’s possible heir emerged. Within
the governing Democratic Party of Socialists the fight is between finance
minister Igor Luksic and the vice-chairman of the party Svetozar Marovic.
Luksic seems to be in the lead as new deputy-PM, but he should look out for
Marovic as well. Meanwhile, the situation of KAP, the biggest employer of the
country seems to be resolved if only for a while. The state and a Russian group
will own the company together, and carry on the social program, worked out
earlier. While the Montenegrin opposition was still negotiating about
parliamentary positions, the public debate in Georgia was about the
protests that have been going on for almost two months. A considerable part of
the opposition leaders, i. e. Irakli Alasania agreed to hold negotiations with
the government on constitutional reforms, while Nino Burjanadze and her
followers continue to protest, although it is now quite obvious that the
tactics based on civil unrest have failed. The security situation continues to
be tense. Before the military exercise of NATO, a rebellion took place in a
military barrack, and the separatist South Ossetia held parliamentary
elections.
Meanwhile, the
opposition was protesting in the neighboring Armenia
as well, as on the 31st May local elections were held in Yerevan for the first
time. Three party lists made it into the city assembly, two of which belong to
the governing parties. The mayor will continue to be Gagik Beglaryan, the
candidate of the senior governing Republicans. The main opposition party, the
National Congress did not acknowledge its defeat. Another loser of the election
was the Revolutionary Federation, which had quit the government just few weeks
earlier. The positions of this party held in the government were distributed
among young politicians of the three remaining governing parties. The
neighboring Azerbaijan
is preparing for a public administration reform as well, but details are not
known yet (however it is sure that it will be a simplification of the
structure). The tension within the country because the thaw between Armenia and
Turkey is growing and the ministry of foreign affairs was utterly skeptical in
commenting the forthcoming meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in
St. Petersburg. Islamic fundamentalism was also brought up as an issue because
of the Baku university massacre in the beginning of May. Serbia
also prepares to reform its system of public administration, but the reform
is in its initial phase here as well. A consequence of the idea of the
President Boris Tadic would be the reduction of the number of deputies in the
parliament, but deputies from Vojvodina are not willing to agree with the
splitting of the autonomous region. This causes considerable debates within the
government, which may be reshuffled in the autumn according to the President.
Meanwhile, the Hague International Court of Justice issued its utterly
optimistic report about Serbia,
but they signaled also that the extradition of Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic is
necessary for Serbia
to continue its process of integration.
Presumably, a
government reshuffle is to be expected in Romania as well,
after the EP-elections, as the grand coalition is on the verge of breaking up.
The election is seen as a rehearsal for the autumn presidential election, in
spite of the fact that President Traian Basescu still has not announced his
intention to stand as a candidate. The first main debate between the two
governing parties was about the method of decentralization, and its personal
consequences, but three important draft laws of the judiciary reform caused
bitter disputes as well. The Democrat-Liberals would tie these laws to a motion
of confidence, while the Social-Democrats would amend them. If the dispute goes
on for a long time, it will have a negative effect on the judiciary report of
the European Commission about Romania. Presidential elections are also a topic
in Ukraine, where the vote is expected to take place in October,
although the constitutional court declared the date unconstitutional. In the
background - again - a new coalition is about to be formed, to further curb the
possibilities of President Victor Yushchenko, although the talks may fail on
some issues, for example the resignation of the interior minister Yuri
Lutsenko, whom the Prime Minister supports. The President lost another ally in
his chief of staff, Victor Baloha, who resigned in May, and immediately turned
against the head of state. The incapacity of the parliament continues to be a
major obstacle to adopt anti-crisis measures, and it is far from sure that the
country can settle its debts with Gazprom by the 7th June. Belarus may soon experience
similar problems, after the President Aleksandr Lukashenka announced the break
up of its country with Moscow.
The problem was that Russia was reluctant to pay the second part of the
promised loan to Belarus, and the Belarusian parliament was not willing to
recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The President,
therefore, ordered the government to look for other economic allies, such as Kazakhstan.
Earlier the finance ministry spoke about a VAT hike, but this was postponed.
The law on amnesty was, however, adopted, which was an important gesture
towards the EU before the May summit that decided on the Eastern Partnership.
The Bulgarian
government was accused by the opposition of using authoritarian instruments
similar to its Belarusian counterpart. The Blue Coalition of parliamentary
right-wing parties was - after the threshold for coalitions was increased to 8%
- almost torn apart by a dispute over the registration of the party for the
European and Bulgarian elections. Many suspected the government to be behind
the story, but the constitutional court later declared the new threshold
invalid, and the registration was settled as well. The governing coalition
adopted a number of important nominations in the parliament before the July
elections - which it will certainly lose - to ensure its political survival. A
positive event for the governing Socialists was, however, that the EU unblocked
some of the previously frozen funds. Meanwhile, the campaign is under way in Albania
as well. At the June elections, four coalitions will compete, out of which
three have real chances to enter the parliament. The party of the Greek
minority teamed up with the left-wing opposition at the last moment, and
withdrew from the government. The start of the campaign was marred by ongoing
disputes about the distribution of new IDs. The government, finally, was
willing to ensure a greater transparency in this matter. The governing right
will be campaigning mainly with infrastructural investments. At the same time
however, the trial of those responsible for last year’s Gerdec blast was
started which may throw light on the governing parties through investigation
into arms trade of the 90s.
In June the Moldovan
parliament will be dissolved, and a new Prime Minister will be chosen in the Bosniak-Croat
Federation. Elections to the European Parliament will be held, which may have
immediate effects on the Romanian government. A reshuffled government
will be formed in Estonia
and Lithuania.
In Ukraine a new government may also emerge. The Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents will meet in St.
Petersburg. Kosovo will become a member of the
World Bank. The Bulgarian and Albanian campaigns will reach their
peak. The spring sessions of parliaments will end.
Between the 4th
and 7th June European Elections will be held in 10 countries of the
region.
On the 6th
June local elections will be held in Latvia.
On the 28th
June parliamentary elections will be held in Albania.